Plum Creek Neighborhood
December 2017 Edition
Hello Plum Creek Neighbors!
So often local real estate professionals provide their clientele with updates about the real estate market using broad strokes that encompass market data of the entire Austin Metro area, Hays County, or the City of Kyle.
However, as the saying goes, real estate is all about location, location, location! Which means that home values and markets will differ by neighborhood, by street and even by the size of home.
That is why it is more important that you receive micro-level market details instead of the typical real estate data that you can easily find in a Google search.
Below you will find my market research that I’ve compiled, calculated and analyzed for you so that you can have the kind of useful and relevant information that is most beneficial to you.
As a fellow neighbor and committed advocate for our community in Plum Creek, I take pleasure in sharing this important information with you. So that is why I plan to create a new Market Update every month for our neighborhood. If you are interested in receiving the following information on a monthly basis you can sign up at the very bottom of this page. I hope you enjoy!
In case you don’t have the time to read this full update…
I’ve included this handy info-graphic to help you get a quick detailed glimpse into how the Plum Creek real estate market is performing. Click the picture to view the latest stats!
According to the Austin Board of REALTORS® latest Central Texas Monthly Housing Report there was a 3.7 percent growth in single family home sales across the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in November 2017. If we look more specifically at sales numbers for Hays County, there was a 14.3 percent in the number of homes sold. Plum Creek sales stayed relatively the same in a year-over-year comparison but that doesn’t mean everything is the same. So let’s take a closer look at all the sales figures for Plum Creek
Single-Family Home Sales
The number of single-family home sales in Plum Creek increased from 8 sales in November 2016 to 9 homes that sold in November 2017. Hays County and Plum Creek both had an increase in sales dollar volume of 5 percent compared to last year. However, if the bigger picture is taken into account, when looking at the rolling yearly total sales figures for Plum Creek, there is a significant decrease of 16.8 percent in the number of homes sold as well as a 15.3 percent decrease in total sales volume.
The average sales price in Plum Creek made a significant drop down from $254,021 to $207,367 – a decrease of 18.4 percent compared to November 2016. The average sales price for Plum Creek normally exceeds the average for the City of Kyle, but for the last 2 months Plum Creek has fallen below the City of Kyle average. A contributing factor to the significant decrease in the average sales price in Plum Creek could be that there were no homes that were above 2500 ft² or $250,000 that sold during November 2017. In fact, 78% of the homes that sold were less than 1500 ft² in living space.
Despite the significant drop in the average sales price during November, Plum Creek still had a slight increase of 1.8 percent in the rolling year average sales price.
Months of Inventory
Because Months of Inventory is often misunderstood, I’m going to provide a brief explanation of what Months of Inventory is and how it helps us to understand the current state of our real estate market before I dive into the numbers:
According to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, months of inventory measures “the current supply of homes offered for sale relative to the number of homes being purchased. The result indicates the number of months it would take to sell all properties currently for sale at the average monthly sales pace” which is also known as the absorption rate. According to research conducted by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, a balanced real estate market in Texas is considered to be around 6 to 6.5 months. This benchmark for a balanced market represents that housing prices are stable and are influenced more by inflation rather than supply and demand. Months of inventory below this benchmark indicate a seller’s market (strong market) and months of inventory above this benchmark indicate a buyers market (down market).
Now to illustrate, the current months of inventory for the City of Kyle and for Plum Creek, which happen to be the same, is at 2.1 months of inventory – indicating that Plum Creek and Kyle are both still considered to have a strong sellers market. Likewise, Hays County has 2.9 months of inventory, which also indicates there is a strong demand for homes in Hays County but not as strong of a demand than what is indicated by the 2.1 months of inventory for Plum Creek and the City of Kyle.
In November 2017, single-family homes that sold in Plum Creek were on the market for an average of 26 days – beating the average of 68 days on market for Hays County. Plum Creek homes took 23 days less to sell compared to November of last year. The average days on market for every home that was or is currently listed for sale in Plum Creek, is currently 63 days. Plum Creek had 1 less new listing compared to November 2016. At the same time, Hays County overall saw a significant 28.3 percent increase in the number of new listings.
The Bottom Line
The demand for homes in Plum Creek is still strong as indicated by the 2.1 months of inventory. However, the overall decline in the number of home sold and total sales volume during the past 12 months does indicate that the demand for homes is not as strong as it was last year. More of the same could be expected for the 2018 year. However, according to Mark Sprague, State Director of Information Capital for Independence Title, there are a few things that could change what is to be expected. He says in the Austin Board of REALTORS® latest Central Texas Monthly Housing Report that…
“Slowing job growth in Central Texas, the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the price of building materials and housing development costs, and the overhaul of the U.S. tax plan are all factors that could hinder housing market growth and negatively impact housing affordability in the Austin area in 2018.”
Throughout the area and in Plum Creek, we are seeing slowing home price appreciation and housing inventory gains, which is further proof that the market is normalizing and aligning with long-term historical market trends.
The Austin Board of REALTORS® also provides market statistics for all of the surrounding zip-codes. You can view that information HERE.
So there you have it! I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Plum Creek Neighborhood Market Update. If you have any questions about how the current market effects your homes value or chances of purchasing your dream home in Plum Creek, please call me or click the links below.